Blackjack : Blackjack Dealers Bust Less Often

Much of the house advantage in blackjack comes from the dealer going last. If the player and the dealer both bust, the house wins. Usually the dealer breaks much less than half the time, despite an up card. The average is 28 percent of all hands. Even having a stiff, two through six the dealer's chance of flouting only averages 39 percent. Holding well, seven through ace, dealers average a 21 percent break rate.

The supplementary table offers parts of hands on which dealers can be expected to exceed 21 for different up cards. The dates indicate how exposure to breaking rises as up cards go from two to six, fall harshly at seven and continues to decrease through 10, then tumbles at ace.

The table shows that on normal situations, the dealer should make 17 through 21 on almost two-thirds of the stiffs and four-fifths of the stronger up cards. Waiting for the dealer to bust isn’t smart playing. Quite often, most favorable decisions are included in basic strategy. These blackjack strategies maximize expected return based on the probability of drawing various cards from the shoe. They weigh the chances dealers will break as well as costs of standing and the risks and rewards of drawing to beat hands dealers make.

Probability that the Dealer Will Break for Various Up cards

UPCARD	Probability of Breaking (%)
2	35
3	37
4	39
5	42
6	42
7	26
8	24
9	23
10	21
A	12