Casino Games : Explore the Alternatives of Casino Games

One strategy when you play casino games like craps is to avoid risk on advantage bets without conceding all the gains. You have to use your intuition and see a reasonable way to back off. But remember guessing must not be your playing style. Learn the basic rules of the craps game and the probabilities of winning to know how to act next. Then, it would be logically to value something like $10 in the rack over a 60 percent chance of sitting pretty with $20, when the downside is a 40 percent chance of having nothing. This is the situation with $10 behind a five or nine after a bet on Don't Pass or Don't Come had survived the 8-to-3 disadvantage when coming-out.

There is something else you can do for Don't Pass and Don't Come bets during the point phase of a roll. It guarantees at least getting the wager back while offering a shot at earning a profit. In case you’ve gone through the Don't Come with $10 and the point is nine leave it alone. This means you’ll have six ways to win $10 versus four to lose $10. Also, you may take down this advantage bet, recovering your $10 while neither winning nor losing. Another choice is to add a $10 Place bet to the nine. Even if a seven will win $10 on the Don't Come and lose $10 on the Place bet you have 60 percent chances to break. Anyway, you have 40 percent chances to win $4 because a nine will lose $10 on the Don't Come and win $14 on the Place bet.

Think about the expected value. If you let the bet stand it gives you 60 percent chances of finishing with $20 and 40 percent chances of finishing with zero. The expected value is 0.6 x $20 + 0.4 x $0, or $12. You’re at an advantage with $10 up, instead a theoretical $12. Placing a lower bet, you're 100 percent certain to finish with $10. In this way you eliminate all the risk but it costs you the theoretical $2 extra you earned letting the bet stand.

That’s why it is better to borrow $10 and Place it on the nine. Your chances of finishing with $10 are 60 percent and 40 percent with $14 (after you return the $10 lend, which you couldn’t lose anyway). The expected value is 0.6 x $10 + 0.4 x 14, or $11.60. In this case, you've avoided the risk but you’ve sacrificed only a theoretical $0.40, instead of $2.

These math estimations can be used similarly for insurance at blackjack. Imagine you bet $10 and get a blackjack but the dealer has ace-up. If you refuse insurance and the dealer turn over a 10, you'll get back the $10 with four out of 13 chances to succeed. With any other card but not 10, the chances are nine out of 13 to recover the $10 and win $15. The expected value in this case is (4/13) x $10 + (9/13) x 25, or $20.38. So, is worth to accept the insurance bet because it gets your $10 back plus a $10 payoff. Anyway, your original $10 is not vulnerable. The insurance guarantee $10 profit but it cost you only a theoretical $0.38.

All these mentioned above should not be taken as advice to give up part or all of the advantage earned getting to the stage of a round where the opening occurs. They only show the statistical nature of conditional advantage. One bet may lose as well as win. During the game these math estimations may highlight you about the situations that offer options to take a shot, mitigate risks, or guarantee a profit, and the trade-offs in a rational manner. So, pay attention and explore alternatives if you want to be a winner.