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February 27, 2007

The Distribution of Playable Poker Hands in Sit and Go Poker Tournaments

Sit and go poker tournaments are fast paced and aggressive. According to the experts the best strategy that you can use is playing tight and aggressive. Some experts even have very strict starting requirements that include getting these card combinations in the first 3 rounds:

•   Ace-Ace;
•   King-King;
•   Queen-Queen;
•   Ace-King.

What makes this a tight game is that the experts advise against playing other card combinations.

I must agree that this is a rather good strategy and I support it. Only good can come out of playing tight and aggressive at the beginning of the tournament. This is because not many things can go wrong by using this strategy.

The main disadvantage of this strategy is the time you lose waiting to get such good card combinations. Usually a sit and go poker tournament lasts for about 100 hands. This means you really do not have time to wait around for a specific card combination.

If you play only good poker hands as the ones presented above you will be predictable. Predictability is not a good thing in poker as good poker players will use this against you. Your predictable betting behavior will make it easier for them to set up poker traps. Still, there are methods to prevent falling into poker traps.

The main thing about sit and go poker tournaments is the distribution of playable hands. Using simple math the probability of getting certain card combinations has been calculated. You will find these statistics presented here, as calculated on 500,000 hands dealt in actual poker games.

Your chances of getting a pair are 5.89%. Your chances of that pair being Ace-Ace, King-King, or Queen-Queen are 1.35%. And your chances of getting an Ace-King combination are 1.2%. As you can see, you do not have very high chances if you play tight. In fact you will be playing only 2.5% of the hands for the first 3 stages. To put this into perspective just imagine that for about 30 to 40 hands of a sit and go poker tournament you will not play as you will not get those card combinations. You will have to make up for that lost time by playing an effective short game. You will be short stacked 4 out of 5 times after any given tournament loses half its players.

Note that even if you do get such card combinations, winning is never a guarantee. You have better chances of winning, but you can never be sure of actually winning. You could be holding a pair of Kings and some lucky player will get a better card combination and win the pot.

If you play too tight you will have slow growth or no growth in your bankroll. That is why you must add other hole cards to your repertoire. This is in fact the best and only solution. The trick is that by adding weaker holdings you must develop other poker skills such as reading your opponents, tracking their betting, understanding position, bluffing, and reading a board correctly.

The card combinations that you can add are:

•   Ace-Queen;
•   Ace-Jack;
•   Ace-10;
•   Suited Ace-X;
•   Suited King-X;
•   King-Queen;
•   King-Jack;
•   King-10.

The thing is that you must pay attention and know when it is the right time to play such hands. These card combinations do not make up very strong poker hands, so basing your strategy on hand strength alone can easily cause you to lose the hand.

If you realize when it is best to play such hands you will increase your chances from 2.5% to as high as 25% in the early stages of the tournament.

Below you will find the statistics of getting certain card combinations as calculated on 500,000 hands dealt in actual poker games:

•   Ace-Ace will come up once in 13,010 hands, or 0.45%;
•   King-King will come up once in 13,182 hands, or 0.46%;
•   Queen-Queen will come up once in 13,122 hands, or 0.45%;
•   Jack-Jack will come up once in 13,069 hands, or 0.45%;
•   10-10 will come up once in 12,886 hands, or 0.45%;
•   9-9 will come up once in 13,092 hands, or 0.45%;
•   All paired starters will come up once in 169,987 hands, or 5.89%;
•   Ace-King will come up once in 34,768 hands, or 1.20%;
•   Suited connectors will come up once in 114,304 hands, or 3.96%.

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